Your book, priced honestly
AUG 2025 THROUGH JAN 2026 / 214 BETS SETTLED
Odds Board
You queued $80 on Kansas City ML in DraftKings at -145, the worst of four quotes on this board. Polymarket sells the same win at 55c, the equivalent of -122. First app opened is not the same as best price.
Sunday slate, four platforms per outcome
Green marks the cheapest implied probability, the quote that pays you most. Red marks the most expensive quote for the identical outcome. Prediction market contracts are shown with their American-odds equivalent.
Price a Bet
Bet inputs
Negative means favorite, for example -110. Positive means underdog, for example +150.
Both sides of the market together reveal how much the book keeps
Your season pace has been about 5 bets a week
The readout
Expected value per bet
-$4.55
Implied vs fair probability
52.4% vs 50.0%
Vig on your side
2.38 pts
Projected 52 weeks at this price
-$1,182
260 bets at $80 average stake
That money could have been
A new iPhone
P&L Ledger
Monthly net result, Aug 2025 through Jan 2026 (USD)
October was the only green month. The December hole is what three chase nights cost.
Settled bets
Showing 8 of 8 recent settlements
PHI -3.5 vs DAL, Polymarket 51c
+$52.84
March rate cut YES, Kalshi 62c
+$38.00
MIL @ BOS ML parlay leg, DK +240
-$150.00
MIL @ BOS over 224.5, FD -110
-$110.00
LAL @ DEN under 229.5, FD -108
-$60.00
NYK ML vs IND, DK -132
+$45.45
CFP title, Georgia ML, Polymarket 63c
+$32.30
Jan CPI above 0.3 NO, Kalshi 44c
-$44.00
The two Thursday losses landed 14 minutes apart, after 11:30 PM, with the stake rising. That sequence is what Tilt Watch catches.
Tilt Watch
Patterns detected in your 214 settled bets
Alert / Chase sequence
Stakes rise after losses
On 3 nights this season the stake grew after each loss, most recently from $60 to $110 to $150 on Jan 22. Chase nights account for $531 of the $1,260 season loss.
- Fri Nov 14, 3 bets, 10:48 PM to 12:21 AM-$96
- Tue Dec 9, 4 bets, 9:52 PM to 12:44 AM-$115
- Thu Jan 22, 3 bets, 11:12 PM to 11:52 PM-$320
Warning / Late-night skew
Losses cluster after 11 PM
67% of your losing dollars were wagered after 11 PM, against 31% of winning dollars. Your late-night win rate drops to 38.6%.
Signal / Line shopping
Best line was missed 61 times
Taking the best available quote instead of the first app opened would have returned +$187 this season with zero extra risk. That covers the January loss on its own. The queued KC bet is about to be miss number 62.